What the local data says
Warranty break even in Kentucky
The Kentucky sample is narrow: Louisville is the only mapped metro. Its $134 independent-shop midpoint lands $14 below the median across our 50 metros.
Moving from the independent midpoint to the $177 dealer figure adds $43 per hour. An eight-hour job absorbs roughly $344 of that difference before parts.
Weather moves between about 43 hot days and 74 freezing days in the mapped metros. I would use those figures to frame contract questions, never to assign a breakdown probability.
Local prices belong beside the contract's labor allowance. Giving the plan credit for the entire invoice before checking that allowance makes the warranty look better than the paperwork supports.